Tesla could take major hit from Trump bill, analyst predicts

After demonstrating strong resilience and rising steadily in May 2025, Tesla  (TSLA)  stock is off to a difficult start for June.

CEO Elon Musk finally did what many experts have advocated for and shifted his focus away from Capitol Hill and back to his companies. When he announced plans to step away from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), share prices surged and investors rejoiced.

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June stands to bring a highly anticipated event, as Tesla prepares to debut its fleet of autonomous robotaxis in Austin, Texas. Despite concern that its technology isn’t ready, Musk has made it clear that the company will proceed with the launch as planned, even after admitting he is “paranoid” about it.

That isn’t the only potential problem Tesla is facing, though. One Wall Street analyst recently speculated that a looming policy from the White House could significantly impact its bottom line.

JPMorgan analyst is concerned about Tesla and Trump

Over the past few months, Tesla stock has battled high volatility, primarily trending downward from January through April. Musk’s focus shift from DOGE to Tesla and SpaceX helped spark momentum as the Spring season began, suggesting that a turnaround could be imminent.

Related: Analyst sets eye-popping Tesla stock price target

However, now all experts are convinced that the company’s road to recovery will be smooth. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman recently highlighted a risk that Tesla is facing, one that stands to severely compromise its chances of getting share prices back to their previous highs.

Brinkman’s thesis centers around a piece of legislation that has been trending on Capitol Hill lately. It would represent a major policy achievement for President Donald Trump. Dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” it centers around tax cuts and social reforms, most of which would benefit the already wealthy.

Trump’s economic policies are often geared at benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals, such as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the landmark bill from his first term. However, Brinkman thinks that his newest bill is likely be shave up to 52% off Tesla’s Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT), a key financial metric.

“The legislation would get rid of the $7,500 federal tax credit EV buyers receive, resulting in a $1.2 billion (19% of its EBIT) headwind for the company thanks to lower demand and margins,” reports Sherwood News. “Additionally, [it] would outlaw the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV program, which furnishes Tesla with regulatory credits. Without them, Tesla would have posted a loss last quarter.”

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According to Brinkman’s estimations, that could result in Tesla taking an additional $2 billion hit, amounting to roughly 33% of its EBIT. On a recent webinar, he stated that the market seemed completely oblivious to what the bill could mean for TSLA stock if passed.

Elon Musk isn’t happy with Trump’s new bill

Brinkman isn’t the only one concerned about what the bill could mean for Tesla. Elon Musk, who recently announced that he is done with his political responsibilities, recently expressed disappointment with Trump, stating that the bill “increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”

Related: Tesla’s robotaxi rollout is alarming the public, new report shows

The Tesla CEO noted that while he thinks the bill can be both big or beautiful, he is skeptical that it can be both. While he hasn’t commented on what it could mean for Tesla, it is clear he doesn’t approve of how Trump, someone he previously worked closely with, is approaching this major bill.

Investing expert James “Rev Shark” DePorre recently raised the question of whether or not Wall Street will be forced to admit that there is a “method to Trump’s madness.” As it stands, the answer remains unknown, as economic conditions remain complicated and highly uncertain, making it hard to pinpoint broader market movements.

If Tesla stock continues to struggle as the bill gains traction, though, other experts may join Brinkman in his argument that the EV leader could end up paying the price for Trump’s policy. This could push shares downward at a highly critical time. 

Related: Billionaire fund manager, skeptical of AI, backs shocking stock

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